An Approach for Portfolio Selection in Multi-Vendor IT Outsourcing

Companies increasingly extend their outsourcing strategies from single-sourcing to multisourcing combining best-of-breed vendors. This paper includes an analytical model to evaluate a company’s multisourcing strategy. The model can be applied for decision support to answer the questions, how many and which outsourcing vendors to integrate in the implementation of an IT project. We identify an optimal vendor portfolio considering monetary benefits and risk diversification as well as transaction costs arising from the integration and coordination of outsourcing vendors. Based upon a simulation, we find that it makes good economic sense to include a risk evaluation into the multisourcing decision process even if it is subject to misestimation. Therewith, companies are able to avoid unnecessary high risk and consequently a possible high damage. Furthermore, we find that it is better to be too cautious in risk assessment than to be too negligent

Benefits Quantification in IT Projects

The probability of IT project failures can be mitigated more successfully when discovered early. To support an early detection, transparency regarding a project’s cash flows shall be increased. Therefore, an appropriate analysis and calculation of a project’s costs, benefits, risks and interdependencies is inevitable. Until today, however, a method that appropriately considers these factors when estimating the ex ante project business case does not yet exist. Using the Action Design Research approach, we designed, applied and tested a practicable and integrated method of determining the monetary value of IT projects to generate generalized insights to benefits management. This method was conjointly developed by practice and academia, to ensure practical applicability while upholding scientific rigor. Furthermore, to support understandability of the method, we provide an application example

Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations

Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities(.)(1,2) This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity(3-6). Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017-and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions-was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing-and in some countries reversal-of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.Peer reviewe

Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries and territories: a pooled analysis of 2181 population-based studies with 65 million participants

Summary Background Comparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents. Methods For this pooled analysis, we used a database of cardiometabolic risk factors collated by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1985 to 2019 in mean height and mean BMI in 1-year age groups for ages 5–19 years. The model allowed for non-linear changes over time in mean height and mean BMI and for non-linear changes with age of children and adolescents, including periods of rapid growth during adolescence. Findings We pooled data from 2181 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in 65 million participants in 200 countries and territories. In 2019, we estimated a difference of 20 cm or higher in mean height of 19-year-old adolescents between countries with the tallest populations (the Netherlands, Montenegro, Estonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina for boys; and the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark, and Iceland for girls) and those with the shortest populations (Timor-Leste, Laos, Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea for boys; and Guatemala, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Timor-Leste for girls). In the same year, the difference between the highest mean BMI (in Pacific island countries, Kuwait, Bahrain, The Bahamas, Chile, the USA, and New Zealand for both boys and girls and in South Africa for girls) and lowest mean BMI (in India, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia, and Chad for boys and girls; and in Japan and Romania for girls) was approximately 9–10 kg/m2. In some countries, children aged 5 years started with healthier height or BMI than the global median and, in some cases, as healthy as the best performing countries, but they became progressively less healthy compared with their comparators as they grew older by not growing as tall (eg, boys in Austria and Barbados, and girls in Belgium and Puerto Rico) or gaining too much weight for their height (eg, girls and boys in Kuwait, Bahrain, Fiji, Jamaica, and Mexico; and girls in South Africa and New Zealand). In other countries, growing children overtook the height of their comparators (eg, Latvia, Czech Republic, Morocco, and Iran) or curbed their weight gain (eg, Italy, France, and Croatia) in late childhood and adolescence. When changes in both height and BMI were considered, girls in South Korea, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and some central Asian countries (eg, Armenia and Azerbaijan), and boys in central and western Europe (eg, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, and Montenegro) had the healthiest changes in anthropometric status over the past 3·5 decades because, compared with children and adolescents in other countries, they had a much larger gain in height than they did in BMI. The unhealthiest changes—gaining too little height, too much weight for their height compared with children in other countries, or both—occurred in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, New Zealand, and the USA for boys and girls; in Malaysia and some Pacific island nations for boys; and in Mexico for girls. Interpretation The height and BMI trajectories over age and time of school-aged children and adolescents are highly variable across countries, which indicates heterogeneous nutritional quality and lifelong health advantages and risks

Risk/Cost Valuation of Fixed Price IT Outsourcing in a Portfolio Context

By optimizing its outsourcing strategy, a company faces the opportunity to lower the overall costs of its IT project portfolio. Without considering risk and diversification effects appropriately, companies make wrong decisions about how much of a project is reasonable to outsource. In this paper, we elaborate a model to identify a project’s optimal degree of outsourcing at a fixed price, considering both, costs and risks of software development, as well as diversification effects. We also examine optimal outsourcing degrees in an IT portfolio context. To date, it is common practice to decide on the implementation of projects first and then decide on outsourcing. We provide a model that enables companies to determine an optimal outsourcing strategy which minimizes the total risk adjusted costs of an IT project portfolio by considering the portfolio decision and the selection of outsourcing degrees simultaneously. This model is then evaluated by simulation using real-world data

Guidelines for the use of flow cytometry and cell sorting in immunological studies

International audienceThe classical model of hematopoiesis established in the mouse postulates that lymphoid cells originate from a founder population of common lymphoid progenitors. Here, using a modeling approach in humanized mice, we showed that human lymphoid development stemmed from distinct populations of CD127(-) and CD127(+) early lymphoid progenitors (ELPs). Combining molecular analyses with in vitro and in vivo functional assays, we demonstrated that CD127(-) and CD127(+) ELPs emerged independently from lympho-mono-dendritic progenitors, responded differently to Notch1 signals, underwent divergent modes of lineage restriction, and displayed both common and specific differentiation potentials. Whereas CD127(-) ELPs comprised precursors of T cells, marginal zone B cells, and natural killer (NK) and innate lymphoid cells (ILCs), CD127(+) ELPs supported production of all NK cell, ILC, and B cell populations but lacked T potential. On the basis of these results, we propose a "two-family" model of human lymphoid development that differs from the prevailing model of hematopoiesis

National trends in total cholesterol obscure heterogeneous changes in HDL and non-HDL cholesterol and total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio:a pooled analysis of 458 population-based studies in Asian and Western countries

Abstract Background: Although high-density lipoprotein (HDL) and non-HDL cholesterol have opposite associations with coronary heart disease, multi-country reports of lipid trends only use total cholesterol (TC). Our aim was to compare trends in total, HDL and non-HDL cholesterol and the total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio in Asian and Western countries. Methods: We pooled 458 population-based studies with 82.1 million participants in 23 Asian and Western countries. We estimated changes in mean total, HDL and non-HDL cholesterol and mean total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio by country, sex and age group. Results: Since ∼1980, mean TC increased in Asian countries. In Japan and South Korea, the TC rise was due to rising HDL cholesterol, which increased by up to 0.17 mmol/L per decade in Japanese women; in China, it was due to rising non-HDL cholesterol. TC declined in Western countries, except in Polish men. The decline was largest in Finland and Norway, at ∼0.4 mmol/L per decade. The decline in TC in most Western countries was the net effect of an increase in HDL cholesterol and a decline in non-HDL cholesterol, with the HDL cholesterol increase largest in New Zealand and Switzerland. Mean total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio declined in Japan, South Korea and most Western countries, by as much as ∼0.7 per decade in Swiss men (equivalent to ∼26% decline in coronary heart disease risk per decade). The ratio increased in China. Conclusions: HDL cholesterol has risen and the total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio has declined in many Western countries, Japan and South Korea, with only a weak correlation with changes in TC or non-HDL cholesterol